A COMPOSITE INDEX FOR PREDICTING PERFORMANCE OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE INCINERATION SYSTEMS

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• Available online in Detritus - In Press
• Pages

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Abstract

Municipal solid waste incineration is pivotal in contemporary waste management strategies, offering waste mass and volume reduction, energy recovery, and pathogen destruction. However, it depends on various parameters that affect the performance or performance prediction of an MSW incineration system, and their optimization is essential for maximizing efficiency, minimizing environmental impact, and ensuring sustainable incineration operation. This study develops a composite index to predict the performance of an MSW incineration plant based on the key parameters known to influence its performance or performance prediction. The index assesses 12 parameters over three categories to rank various MSW incineration facilities based on their performance. It does this by expressing the performance in the form of a numerical value ranging from 0 to 100, where a higher index value implies better performance of the incineration plant. It is developed using a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach by incorporating the expertise of more than 150 experts from the field of solid waste management. The literature review helped identify 21 parameters that were known to affect MSW incineration performance. Then, expert opinions were utilized to cut down and prioritize these 21 parameters to the 12 most crucial ones using the Fuzzy Delphi-Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. The index is then finally constructed by aggregating the weighted scores of these identified parameters. The proposed index is then demonstrated using hypothetical plant data from three MSW incineration plants. It reflects the effectiveness of this tool in predicting and comparing the performance of MSW incineration plants.

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Keywords

• Composite Index
• MSW incineration
• Environmental index
• Performance prediction

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Editorial History

• Received: 30 Nov 2025
• Revised: 12 Feb 2026
• Accepted: 31 Mar 2026
• Available online: 03 May 2026

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